Understanding How Polls Affect Voters
Summary: In the article "Understanding How Polls Affect Voters" economist David Rothschild explains the effect that polls have on voters. Changes in voting affects both parties in any election and if polls have a major effect on voters then polls may be huge in swaying the vote to either party's side. The article goes further into depth by explaining human tendencies and how "majority opinion" helps sway votes. The article also talks about the "bandwagon effect in the political domain" and how its swayed voters through its influence in polls.
Connection: Polling is looked to in every election as a means to tell who is winning and who is losing. If polling has such a great effect on voters then it is important to understand how and why it affects them.
Questions:
In what ways do polls effect voters?
Why are polls effective in swaying voters?
How will polling's roll change as it becomes more or less reliable and used?
Polls impact the public and voters dramatically due to the "bandwagon effect". This implies that individuals will often side with the majority opinion in order to feel liked and accepted. The use of "horse race" polls further illustrates the effectiveness of the bandwagon effect. By highlighting which politician is in the lead "not only affects support, but levels of engagement: donations, volunteering and turnout." Overall, polls use bandwagoning to play upon human psychology leading to changes in opinions.
ReplyDeletePolls are effective in swinging voters because future voters make their decisions based on popular opinion. Swing voters heavily way their options based on who the polls are telling them is the better candidate. Polls are also highly influential because many people don't want to waste their vote, and so if it seems like one candidate is pulling ahead, then they may not vote in opposition of the leading candidate just because it would be a waste of their time. On the other hand, voters may chose not to vote for their candidate if it appears they are ahead in the polls because they think they will already win without their vote and so they chose not to out and vote. Polls are highly influential because of how they can effect the decisions voters make later when November comes around.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Kaeley, polls can be very effective in elections. However, sometimes polls are inaccurate, and this can affect who wins an election. For example, many polls stated that Clinton was in the lead for the election, so many Clinton supporters did not vote. Yet Trump won the election, leading many to believe that people lied on their polls, giving the public a false sense of who was ahead in the election.
DeleteA change in the reliability of polls would probably have very little effect on their roles (respectively or collectively) because of established ideas about their dependability. In common media, the validity of polls and the statistical methods used to conduct them are seldom questioned. The polls are cited, but possible biases or errors in them are not covered unless the point of the article or segment concerning them is to analyze a poll with inaccurate results. Accordingly, these polls are treated as incontrovertible evidence in favor of or against one position or another--whether or not they are actually reflective of the objective truth concerning the number of people that hold a specific belief. Reliability or unreliability of polls can also serve as an indicator for confirmation bias because polls positively reflective of a given voter's position can be treated as accurate, where polls that indicate things with which that voter disagrees can simply be ignored with the excuse that they were flawed.
ReplyDeleteIn many ways the media's broadcast of polls tend to skew results by swaying voters to vote for the majority. Furthermore, individuals who are less educated on topics and issues presented by each candidate are likely to vote with the majority because they assume that a majority of voters are voting for positive causes. Polls are so effective in swaying voters because of the pressure they give to voters as well as the feeling of not having a vote that matters. For instance, if a candidate is lacking in the polls, an individual may feel that they won't vote because their candidate is "already" going to lose. I think that as polling becomes more reliable and factual, voters will likely follow a bandwagon trend more often.
ReplyDeleteAnother perspective to consider about how polling affects voters is fear that it can induce. For example, if a poll reveals that a certain, despised candidate is doing exceptionally well, the public may be inspired by fear of that candidate winning to vote. On another note, I personally don't think that polling's role will change much once it becomes less reliable, as the majority of the country is ignorant and will believe anything they read.
ReplyDeleteIn many ways, polls only effect swing voters. Voters who have strong opinions and ties to certain political parties. To these people, it doesn't really matter who's running, they really only care about whether that person is a Republican or Democrat. However, to swing voters, it really does matter. Swing voters pay attention to and are persuaded by many polls telling them which candidate is better and which is in the lead. These people don't want to waste their votes and really want their votes to matter and have influence on the election at whole. They may be more likely to vote for the candidate in the lead, however, this is not always the case. Polls can be highly influential to these swing voters and may in turn help influence who wins the elections.
ReplyDeleteSwing voters are not the only ones affected by polls because in a landslide election, if a candidate is losing by a substantial amount, their voters may be unmotivated to get out and vote. Also, polls may affect the other side who thinks their candidate has the election locked up and they in turn will not vote. Overall, I think the polls can affect all voters.
DeletePolling definitely does influence voters, as the all humans feel the need to follow the masses. In addition, the minority may become discouraged by polls because they feel as if their votes are meaningless if they are not aboard the bandwagon. However, a major aspect of the impact of polling is the type and sources of polls that citizens are consuming. People will always find a way to find polls that back up their own opinions in order to feel better about themselves and their ideas. Because polling can be easily manipulated through sample size and question wording, I would venture to say that every person could find a poll to back up their perspective, and it is up to the consumer to determine the credibility of polls. Because polling is protected by the first amendment, it would be very difficult for the government to place restrictions on the way polls are conducted or how they are published.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Jason. Polling also increases the chances that people will vote for candidates from our main 2 parties. If people don't think 3rd party candidates can win, they often will compromise for someone who has a chance at winning. Therefore, polling and thus bandwagoning increases the hyperpluralism within the US.
DeletePolls effect voters in a number of ways. Polls can make voters feel embarrassed about their vote which can lead to a change in vote. Many have questioned the validity of the polls after the 2016 presidential election where people all over the country were shocked by with the victory of Donald Trump. What many people failed to take into account was that voters who ended up voting for Trump were embarrassed and either said they were voting for Hillary, a third party, or refused to disclose their vote. Because of these reasons people were shocked by the results.
ReplyDeletePolls greatly influence voters. Many voters jump on the bandwagon and “conform to majority opinion” rather than looking into each candidate. As the article mentions, the reason for the bandwagon effect may be that people assume that others have done research on the candidates and that whoever is more popular is the more qualified candidate. There may also be pressure to conform.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Dione, and since jumping on the bandwagon is a significant problem, Americans are becoming less and less informed. Polls negatively affect the elections because people focus on polls instead of issues. Misinformed people may vote for people in their party but may not know the policy platform they are running on.
DeletePolls have huge effects on voters. If a voter believes a candidate won't win anyway, they are vary unlikely to cast their vote for them because they think that will be throwing their vote away. Also, if one side believes or sees that their candidate is lower in the polls, they may be more motivated to go out and increase support for their candidate. Polls can dictate what direction voters choose to go in and how they respond in different political situations.
ReplyDeleteAlthough the article is generally targeting polling and issues with conformity, I think one of the underlying issues it also highlighted was the fact that many Americans are simply not knowledgeable enough about the government. The bandwagon effect can be largely contributed to the fact that people tend to go along with others because they think those people are knowledgeable on the topic and voted correctly. This is a danger to democracy because all citizens should have a greater understanding of government so that they can make their own informed decisions.
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