Summary: In NBC’s article “Do Presidential Debates Impact Election Outcomes,” the author, Dante Chinni, argues that presidential debates really don’t actually influence voters all that much, and instead allow the media to test the candidate’s ability to deal with pressure, or allow the candidates to attack their opponent one last time. Since 1992, the candidate who was leading when they went into the debate ended up winning in the election, except on one occasion, that being 2000. The 1980 presidential debate between Jimmy Carter, and Ronald Reagan is often used as evidence to show that the debates really can influence elections, however; Later analysis of the polls showed that Reagan had a solid lead against Carter since June that year. Because the candidates announce their run for presidency over a year in advance, their images are already solidified and well- known by the public, and voters seeing the candidates on TV is not going to influence them any more than other times they have seen the candidates.
Connection: The presidential debate last Monday night saw record breaking numbers of people tuned in to watch the two highly disliked candidates attack each other. Throughout the course of the race, Clinton has maintained a lead over Trump by a few points, so will the trend continue, and will we see Hillary Clinton as our next president?
Questions: Seeing the trend that the candidate leading going into the debate usually wins the election, how could Trump somehow beat Hillary?
In what way could presidential debates become more influential in elections?
Should we even attempt to make the debates more influential?
I think that this recent debate between Trump and Hillary doesn't really matter when it comes to changing people's minds because their opinions of the candidates are already made up. Seeing the trend that the candidate leading going into the debate usually wins the election, I think that the only way Trump could win is if he gets more of his potential voter demographic (white, working class, high-school educated, males) to actually vote. However, this demographic is typically known to have a low voter turnout.
ReplyDeleteI agree that the most recent debate has not been very influential because candidate supporters have made up their minds on who they are voting for. However, I do believe that these debates are still relevant and can be influential to independent voters that candidates are trying to sway. And to build off of the point you made about seeing how candidates do under pressure, I think this debate was a good display of how prepared each candidate was and how well they performed under pressure.
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DeleteI would have to disagree with your claim that people minds are already made up as to who they are going to vote for. Most polls have around 8%+ of voters saying they are either voting for a third party candidate or they are undecided. The polls in the last month have been very volatile and I expect this trend to continue until election day. When there is dissatisfaction within both parties about each party's choice in a candidate, there is certainly room for both candidates to pull votes from each other- not to mention the 8% undecided gap that has the ability to easily to swing the polls in either direction.
DeleteI think the debates matter - they solidify the standing of each candidate and can energize the base of each candidate. Be careful of assuming causality, i.e the debate didn't affect voters. It's likely the candidate winning before the debate had already exhibited the qualities which garnered the lead and then reaffirmed those qualities during the debate, leading to the eventual victory.
ReplyDeleteI think that Presidential debates don't have a huge influence on changing people's votes, but it does have some influence. People who have strong opinions either way, democratic or republican, are not going to change their opinions on candidates after one debate, but these debates could help to solidify their view on the candidates. On the other hand, the presidential debate could have a large effect on voters who are on the edge on who to vote for. Listening to the presidential debate could make these viewers swing one way or the other. In addition, I like what the article said about really testing the president's ability to act under pressure. Being the president is a stressful and important job, so the presidential debates are a good first way to see if this man/woman is capable of winning a debate and eventually running our country.
ReplyDeleteI don't think debates matter nearly as much as they did in the past. For instance, the 1960 televised debate between Kennedy and Nixon had huge implications because it was the first time the public had seen the two up close and personal. Nixon refused make up and seemed rough and unrefined, while Kennedy seemed made for TV and came off much more smooth and refined compared to his opponent. But nowadays, I wouldn't say debates matter nearly as much. In the cases of Trump and Clinton, they have already had plenty of time to establish their personas and stances, and the debates only serve to solidify opinions that the public has already formed.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Jason in that the debates don't matter as much as they did before. In addition, Trump's loud personality could have influenced the amount of viewers, because many people tuned in for the entertaining aspect of it. Once the amount of candidates comes down between 2 people, I would say that voters have a good idea of who they are going to vote for, especially if they base it off party and issues.
DeleteI agree that debates have less impact than in the past. Due to the polarity of today's candidates, it will be hard to steal voters from the others base of support. Due to the radical differences between Hillary and Donald, people have already chosen their side and refuse to move. Overall, the debate mainly serves to reaffirm and support the support groups each candidate has already established.
ReplyDeleteThese presidential debates, being so late in the campaign really has a limited affect in swaying voters from their already solidified allegiances. With that being said, it would be statistically true to state that the candidate who was initially winning throughout the campaign, would also be seen to come out on top after the presidential debate. In today's society, these debates serve to feed the media and not so as much to provide any realistic impact on the minds of voters. At this point, voters will only be nodding in agreement with anything that their candidate says and bashing at whatever the opposing candidate states.
ReplyDeleteI believe that the debates do matter- they give people a greater look at who the candidates are as people and the specifics of their campaign platforms. Additionally, the debates are in part designed to help sway voters who may be undecided, by showing the strength of each candidate and how a candidate may represent a potential voter's point of view. I think at this point it's really not possible for Trump to beat hillary, but in order for him to do so more documents would have to be leaked and Trump would have to do tremendously at the debates. At this point its hard to make the debates more influential- the majority of the country already focuses on watching to see the responses that each candidate will give.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Ben that debates are important. However, I do no think that it will have significant impact on influencing votes. Most voters at this point have already decided on who they will vote for. Additionally, with the increase of party polarization, people are less likely to be swayed to other party.
DeleteI do not think that the presidential debates will have a big impact on the outcome of the election. However if Trump wanted to beat Hillary he would definitely have to work hard in order to perform better at future debates. Although many voters have already chosen with candidates they will vote for, a lot of independent voters will ultimately make their decision based on the candidates performances at the debates.
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